The conjunction and disjunction fallacies are famous for revealing the limits of human reasoning about probability. This can be measured by telling people a short story about a character and then ...

Suppose you receive the following questionnaire in an email: Imagine an urn containing 90 balls of three different colors: red balls, black balls and yellow balls. We know that the number of red balls ...

In A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities, published in 1814, Pierre-Simon Laplace introduced a notorious hypothetical creature: a “vast intelligence” that knew the complete physical state of the ...